Solaris Bumblebee Mission - Teruel (LETL)

status
⚙ settings
Airframe speed (IAS):
CAPE limit:
Freedom of movement:
0.70 safe envelope 0.95 max permitted
Include in GO/NO-GO:

10-day mission success trend

Attainable ceiling per day

Legend

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THREE KINDS OF UNCERTAINTY, and they are not interchangeable. Each day carries one chip per axis. A day can be confident on one and worthless on another, which is exactly why they are reported separately rather than folded into the single score.
  • ENSEMBLE SPREAD“12 of 50 members can climb to 40k ft”. One model is run 50 times from slightly different starting conditions; this counts how many of those runs say the platform reaches the mission altitude. It measures disagreement inside a single forecast. Low count = the atmosphere itself is uncertain that day.
  • MODEL STABILITY“held steady across 2 model runs”. The same date, scored again each time a new forecast is issued (every ~6 h), and compared with what it said last time. It measures whether the forecast keeps changing its mind between runs. A date that swings 40 points run to run is untrustworthy at any score, and ensemble spread cannot show you this — a single run can be confidently wrong.
  • MODEL AGREEMENT“1 of 3 forecasting centres can climb to 40k ft”. Three independent centres — ECMWF (Europe), NOAA/GFS (US) and DWD/ICON (Germany) — each with their own physics, own observations and own assimilation, are asked the same question: walking the climb under identical thresholds, how high can the platform get? The count is how many of the three reach the mission altitude requirement. 1 of 3 means two of the world’s three major centres say the sortie cannot reach its altitude and one says it can — a genuine forecasting disagreement, not a rounding difference, and the weakest evidence the tool can offer. 3 of 3 is the strongest.
Read the spread between centres, never a centre against the primary score. All three are single deterministic runs and sit below the 50-member ensemble mean by construction, because a deterministic run keeps the wind maxima that averaging 50 members smooths away.
within limits (<20% breach risk)
caution (20-50%)
outside limits (>50%)
white border + ! = ensemble mean already exceeds the FoM limit
no data — voids the score for that day
not applicable this phase
italic blue = advisory level above the mission altitude requirement: analysed for the ceiling, excluded from the exceedance combination
struck through = non-traversable, climb arrested at a subjacent level
red hatch on the criteria score = hour disqualified by the altitude requirement, whatever the score reads
white dot = T-72h empirical escalation applied
under an hour = operative slot: the best hour in an elective window (launch / recovery)
·blue hour = D+1, the recovery window falls on the night after launch
dotted border = deterministic backfill. The ensemble could not supply this cell — either the run ended before this hour, or the API publishes no spread for that variable — so the value came from a single deterministic model run instead. One run has no spread of its own, so its uncertainty was invented from a lead-time error-growth curve rather than measured from disagreeing members. The forecast value may be perfectly good; the confidence attached to it is an assumption, and the growth coefficients behind it are untuned placeholders. Treat the probability as indicative, and do not let a dotted cell carry a marginal GO on its own.
ENSEMBLE every scoring input from real ensemble spread
MIXED some hours backfilled
DETERMINISTIC all hours backfilled — treat probabilities as indicative
Limits in use:
Data sources: